The forecasts for the period 2023-2024 indicate that free cash flow and government take in Africa are expected to remain relatively stable after a steep drop between 2022 and 2023. This stability is attributed to stable commodity prices and a generally consistent investment profile across the continent, with similar free cash flow generation between 2023 and 2024, primarily led by national oil companies (NOCs) and major international oil companies.
Regarding global oil and condensate production in 2024, a slight increase is forecasted compared to 2023, mainly driven by the Middle East and the Americas. The main drivers of demand over the next 18 months are expected to be the road transport and petrochemical sectors. Despite a global gas supply mainly driven by North America, the Middle East, Asia, and Russia, demand for natural gas and liquefied natural gas (LNG) is expected to exceed supply from currently producing fields, with significant reliance on new projects and undeveloped discoveries.
The evolution of the oil and gas industry in Africa is influenced by various factors, including production, investments, exploration spending, emissions, and electricity access. The focus on renewable energies, particularly solar, onshore wind, and hydrogen, indicates a growing trend towards sustainable energy transition in the region, with countries like Egypt, Morocco, Mauritania, and South Africa being major drivers of renewable capacity.
