The energy transition seems more disorderly than ever. A world economy shaken by a global pandemic and the surging inflation that has accompanied the subsequent recovery has had to contend with a tragic conflict in Ukraine and its aftermath of human suffering, rising energy costs, and declining energy security. The immediate response has meant more short-term reliance on fossil fuels and less available resources for the transition, not to mention additional challenges to regional and global coordination.
As we look toward 2023 and COP28, the dual imperatives of ensuring energy resilience and affordability and of reducing emissions appear equally inescapable. Instead of delaying action, we believe these imperatives emphasize the importance of accelerating coordinated, long-term action, at the same time as taking short-term measures. This report, which builds on our prior work identifying requirements for the net-zero transition, highlights a range of near-term actions that countries and regions around the world could take to ensure they transition their energy system while maintaining focus on the immediate needs of energy resilience and affordability (a less disorderly, and hence “more orderly,” transition).
Some key findings are to be noted. The need for accelerated and sustained action is pressing, as physical climate risk and its visible manifestations continue to grow. To bridge a gap between the current emissions trajectory and a path that would limit global warming to 1.7°C by 2030, annual solar and wind installed capacity would need to almost triple over the coming decade, to more than 520 gigawatts (GW) average yearly installed capacity, from an average of about 180 GW from 2016 to 2021.
The energy transition: A region-by-region agenda for near-term action | McKinsey
